09 September 2010

An Estimate for the House Elections on Nov. 2nd

The Republicans will not take back control. I project they will emerge with 190 seats. This is not based on any statistical analysis -- for that you can wait for Nate Silver to announce his numbers -- but on my hunches concerning the inaccuracy of most national polls (which do not attempt to survey households without landline phones).

As an example of where Republicans will find troubles of their own, take a look at Minnesota's 6th district, where Michelle Bachmann is facing Tarryl Clark. The Republican share of the vote has steadily declined over the last eight years (2002: 57%; 2004: 54%; 2006: 50%; 2008: 46%).

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