Why am I pessimistic about the chances for repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell this year? Because at least 40 Senators are terrified* of people like Les Kinsolving, who thinks "self-announced homosexuals" in the armed forces would mean the end of civilization.
*Every Republican in the Senate is beholden to right-wing organizations like Concerned Women for America and Family Research Council for campaign contributions. Pundits love to talk about how 'moderate' some Republicans are, like Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and John Ensign (who was affiliated with the C Street "Family", which tacitly supported Uganda's death to homosexuals bill, but who really cares about that?). When the base starts hearing that one might support the destruction of "Judeo-Christian values" (probably the most frequently used code word for homophobia), one's vaunted moderation is prone to vanish in a second.